The so-called experts in every media industry believe that they can figure out better than anyone else what will sell. In fact, all their research generally does is lead to lots of cookie-cutter copycat products based on what did well in the past. Then they try to make up for this with lots of expensive marketing aimed at telling consumers what they want.
I believe that an indie gamer would have as much or even more chance of coming up with a new, original idea that would be a blockbuster. The only problem is that the indie gamer doesn't have the resources to produce the game as it should be done or the industry connections to see that it gets distributed and marketed.